DeSart model: Clinton with very clear lead in New York

The DeSart model published an updated prediction of the election result. The model expects that Clinton will obtain 62.4% of the two-party vote share in New York, whereas Trump will win 37.6%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they can contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 60.6% of the two-party vote in New York, which is 1.8 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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