Consensus among component methods about election outcome

The combined PollyVote today predicts a national two-party vote share of 52.8% for Clinton and 47.2% for Trump. The component methods have all come to the same conclusion. All prediction models expect Clinton to win.

Expert surveys predict a vote share of 52.7% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 54.5% the prediction markets deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast.

With 53.9% in aggregated polls the vote share for the Democrats is notably low when compared to past election years. This is the lowest value at that time in the campaign since 2008, when Barack Obama ran against John McCain. At that time, combined polls expected a vote share of 52.9% for Democratic candidate Barack Obama, in the end he reached 53.7%.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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