The Rothschild model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 68.0% for Clinton and 32.0% for Trump in Colorado.
In Colorado, the election outcome is often close. This is why the state is commonly regarded as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models can include substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, one should look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of Colorado econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.0%. This value is 16.0 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Rothschild model.
The Rothschild model compared with PollyVote's prediction
PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 53.3% of the two-party vote in Colorado, which is 14.7 percentage points below the results of the Rothschild model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 15.2 percentage points higher.