Rothschild model: Clinton tied with Trump in New Hampshire

The Rothschild model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a tie, with both Clinton and Trump receiving 50% of the two-party vote.

In New Hampshire, the election outcome is often decided by a narrow margin. This is the reason why the state is commonly considered a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models can include substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 47.7 percentage points, while Trump did better with 47.7 percentage points.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

Clinton has 52.2 percentage points less and Trump has 52.2 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for New Hampshire.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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