Rothschild model: Clinton tied with Trump in Iowa

The Rothschild model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a tie, with both Clinton and Trump receiving 50% of the two-party vote.

Iowa is traditionally a swing state, where the candidates of both major parties have often achieved similar levels of voter support. This is why the election outcome in that state is viewed as crucial in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they often incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 47.6 percentage points, while Trump did better with 47.6 percentage points.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

Clinton has 51.4 percentage points less and Trump has 51.4 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Iowa.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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