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Rothschild model: Clinton tied with Trump in Illinois

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The Rothschild model provided an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently predicts a tie, with each candidate ending up with 50% of the two-party vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they can contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 46.0 percentage points, while Trump did better with 46.0 percentage points.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

Clinton has 57.3 percentage points less and Trump has 57.3 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Illinois.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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