Rothschild model: Clinton tied with Trump in Hawaii

The Rothschild model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently predicts a tie, with each candidate ending up with 50% of the two-party vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they often contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Results compared to other econometric models

In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 35.9 percentage points, while Trump did better with 35.9 percentage points.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

Clinton has 67.8 percentage points less and Trump has 67.8 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Hawaii.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.