The Rothschild model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a tie, with both Clinton and Trump ending up with 50% of the two-party vote.
Historically, Florida has been a battleground state, in which neither of the two major parties has had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. Hence, predictions in this state are of particular importance.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be treated with caution, because they may contain large biases. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 50.5 percentage points, while Trump did better with 50.5 percentage points.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
Clinton has 50.6 percentage points less and Trump has 50.6 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Florida.