The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.0% for Clinton and 49.0% for Trump in Florida.
In Florida, the popular vote is often close. This is the reason why the state is commonly viewed as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. As a result, you should not have too much confidence in the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, we recommend to consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 50.3% in Florida.