Putting the results in context

The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election result. According to this model, Clinton will collect 50.6% of the two-party vote share in Iowa, while Trump will end up with 49.4%.

Historically, Iowa has been a swing state, in which neither of the two major parties has had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. Therefore, predictions here are of particular importance.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, don't have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 51.2% of the two-party vote in Iowa, which is 0.6 percentage points above the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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