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Putting the results in context

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The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 49.1% for Clinton and 50.9% for Trump in Ohio.

Historically, Ohio has been a swing state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. Hence, predictions here are of particular interest.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models can include substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 49.3% of the two-party vote in Ohio, which is 1.6 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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