The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 51.3% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, while Trump will win 48.7%.
Ohio is traditionally a battleground state, where the two major political parties have historically won similar levels of voter support. Hence, the election outcome here is viewed as important in determining the overall result of the presidential election.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be interpreted with caution, because they often incorporate substantial biases. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 50.7% in Ohio.