The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model forecasts that Clinton will receive 50.4% of the two-party vote share in New Hampshire, whereas Trump will win 49.6%.
In New Hampshire, the election outcome is usually close. Therefore, the state is commonly regarded as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models should be regarded with caution, since they can incorporate large biases. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Clinton currently achieves 52.2% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in New Hampshire. This value is 1.8 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the DeSart model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 52.2% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire, which is 1.8 percentage points above the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 2.3 percentage points lower.