Putting the results in context

The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to this model, Clinton will collect 51.6% of the two-party vote share in Minnesota, whereas Trump will win 48.4%.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models can contain large biases, and should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Minnesota econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 55.1%. Relative to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 3.5 percentage points higher.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 2.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.8% in Minnesota. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 1.1 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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