Putting the results in context

The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model forecasts that Clinton will achieve 51.0% of the two-party vote share in Nevada, whereas Trump will end up with 49.0%.

Nevada is traditionally a purple state, where the two major political parties have often achieved similar voter support. Therefore, the election outcome in that state is regarded critical in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models may contain large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, you should rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results vs. other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Nevada has Clinton at 51.2% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.2 percentage points better.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 0.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 50.9% in Nevada. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.7 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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