The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.5% for Clinton and 48.5% for Trump in Nevada.
Nevada is traditionally a purple state, where the GOP and the Democrats have often gained similar levels of support among voters. Therefore, the election outcome here is considered critical in determining the overall result of the presidential election.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not be too confident the results of an individual econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Nevada has Clinton at 51.3% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.2 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 50.9% in Nevada. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.2 percentage points lower.