The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 50.4% of the two-party vote share in Colorado, while Trump will end up with 49.7%.
Historically, Colorado has been a purple state, in which neither of the two major parties has had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. This is why forecasts in this state are of particular interest.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models may incorporate substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Clinton currently runs at 52.1% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Colorado. Compared to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.7 percentage points better.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 3.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.4% in Colorado. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 2.3 percentage points lower.