Putting the results in context

The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.0% for Clinton and 49.0% for Trump in Florida.

Florida is traditionally a swing state, where Democrats and Republicans have historically won similar levels of support among voters. This is the reason why the election outcome here is viewed as important in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, one should not be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Florida econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.5%. Compared to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.5 percentage points worse.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 50.3% in Florida. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.7 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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