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Putting the results in context

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The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 49.1% for Clinton and 50.9% for Trump in Ohio.

Historically, Ohio has been a battleground state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. Therefore, forecasts here are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models can contain large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Ohio has Trump at 49.8% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.1 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 1.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 49.3% in Ohio. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 3.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

Putting the results in context

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The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 50.3% for Clinton and 49.7% for Trump in Pennsylvania.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models can incorporate large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Pennsylvania econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 51.9%. This value is 1.6 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the DeSart model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 3.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.4% in Pennsylvania. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 2.4 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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