The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 49.1% for Clinton and 50.9% for Trump in Ohio.
Historically, Ohio has been a battleground state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. Therefore, forecasts here are of particular value.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models can contain large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Ohio has Trump at 49.8% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.1 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 1.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 49.3% in Ohio. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 3.6 percentage points higher.