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Putting the results in context

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The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump in Iowa.

Historically, Iowa has been a battleground state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to secure that state's electoral college votes. This is why forecasts here are of particular interest.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. As a result, one should not put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Iowa econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.5%. This value is 1.9 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 51.2% of the two-party vote in Iowa, which is 0.6 percentage points above the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 2.1 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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