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Putting the results in context

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The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.3% for Clinton and 48.7% for Trump in Ohio.

Ohio is traditionally a swing state, where Republicans and Democrats have often gained similar voter support. Hence, the election outcome here is viewed as critical in determining the overall result of the presidential election.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. As a result, you should not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

Clinton can currently count on 50.2% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Ohio. This value is 1.1 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 50.7% in Ohio. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.4 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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