Putting the results in context

The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 49.5% for Clinton and 50.5% for Trump in Virginia.

Historically, Virginia has been a swing state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. Hence, predictions in this state are of particular interest.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump is currently at 53.1% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Virginia. This value is 2.6 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the DeSart model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 49.8% of the two-party vote in Virginia, which is 0.7 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 3.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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