The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to this model, Clinton will garner 43.2% of the two-party vote share in Oklahoma, whereas Trump will end up with 56.8%.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models may contain large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results vs. other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Oklahoma has Trump at 63.4% of the two-party vote. This value is 6.6 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.
The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 5.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 62.7% in Oklahoma. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 9.5 percentage points higher.