New York: DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead
The DeSart model published an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 62.4% for Clinton and 37.6% for Trump in New York.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models may contain large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
If we look at an average of New York econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 60.7%. In comparison to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.7 percentage points worse.
The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 1.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 60.6% in New York. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 9.7 percentage points higher.