New York: DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart model published an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 62.4% for Clinton and 37.6% for Trump in New York.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models may contain large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of New York econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 60.7%. In comparison to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.7 percentage points worse.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 1.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 60.6% in New York. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 9.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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