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New Jersey: DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead


The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model expects that Clinton will garner 56.9% of the two-party vote share in New Jersey, whereas Trump will end up with 43.2%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, you should not be too confident the results of a single econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, we recommend to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in New Jersey has Clinton at 57.3% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.4 percentage points better.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 0.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.4% in New Jersey. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 4.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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