The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model expects that Clinton will garner 56.9% of the two-party vote share in New Jersey, whereas Trump will end up with 43.2%.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, you should not be too confident the results of a single econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, we recommend to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in New Jersey has Clinton at 57.3% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.4 percentage points better.
The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 0.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.4% in New Jersey. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 4.2 percentage points higher.