The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model's forecast is that Clinton will achieve 61.6% of the two-party vote share in Massachusetts, while Trump will win 38.4%.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models can include substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Massachusetts has Clinton at 62.1% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.5 percentage points better.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 2.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 63.6% in Massachusetts. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 8.9 percentage points higher.