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Kentucky: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead


The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election result. The model's forecast is that Clinton will obtain 47.8% of the two-party vote share in Kentucky, whereas Trump will win 52.2%.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be interpreted with caution, because they can incorporate substantial biases. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice is to use combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Kentucky has Trump at 58.4% of the two-party vote. This value is 6.2 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 59.9% of the two-party vote in Kentucky, which is 7.7 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 4.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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