Jerome model: Trump with small lead in Georgia

The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 47.6% for Clinton and 52.4% for Trump in Georgia.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models can include substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Trump is currently at 54.5% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Georgia. Relative to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 2.1 percentage points better.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 0.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 52.0% in Georgia. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 5.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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