Jerome model: Trump with comfortable lead in Montana

The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 45.3% for Clinton and 54.7% for Trump in Montana.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of a single econometric model. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Montana has Trump at 57.3% of the two-party vote. In comparison to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 2.6 percentage points better.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 2.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.1% in Montana. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 7.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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