Jerome model: Trump with clear lead in North Dakota

The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 44.3% for Clinton and 55.7% for Trump in North Dakota.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models may incorporate large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in North Dakota has Trump at 59.4% of the two-party vote. In comparison to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 3.7 percentage points better.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 4.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 59.7% in North Dakota. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 8.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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