Jerome model: Trump with clear lead in Indiana

The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to this model, Clinton will collect 43.4% of the two-party vote share in Indiana, whereas Trump will end up with 56.6%.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be treated with caution, because they can contain large biases. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Indiana sees Trump at 57.3% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.7 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 1.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 55.5% in Indiana. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 9.3 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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