Jerome model: Trump with clear lead in Arizona

The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model forecasts that Clinton will obtain 42.8% of the two-party vote share in Arizona, whereas Trump will end up with 57.2%.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be treated with caution, because they often include large biases. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump is currently at 57.3% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Arizona. Compared to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 0.1 percentage points higher.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 3.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 54.1% in Arizona. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 9.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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