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Jerome model: Trump trails by a very clear margin

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The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 86.4% for Clinton and 13.6% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models often incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models has Clinton at 89.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.8 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 3.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 90.3%. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 33.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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