Jerome model: Trump in Oregon trails by a moderate margin

The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 54.2% for Clinton and 45.8% for Trump in Oregon.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, you should not be overly confident the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy use combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Oregon has Clinton at 54.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.1 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 1.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 52.8% in Oregon. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 1.5 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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