Jerome model: Trump in New York trails by a clear margin

The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 58.9% for Clinton and 41.1% for Trump in New York.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in New York sees Clinton at 60.7% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.8 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 1.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 60.6% in New York. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 6.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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