Jerome model: Trump in New Jersey trails by a clear margin

The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to this model, Clinton will garner 57.7% of the two-party vote share in New Jersey, whereas Trump will end up with 42.3%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not focus too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of New Jersey econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 57.3%. Compared to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.4 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.4% in New Jersey. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 5.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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