Jerome model: Trump in Illinois trails by a moderate margin

The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 54.4% for Clinton and 45.6% for Trump in Illinois.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be treated with caution, since they may incorporate substantial errors. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Illinois has Clinton at 54.0% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.4 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 57.3% of the two-party vote in Illinois, which is 2.9 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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