Jerome model in Washington: Clinton is in the lead

The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 52.8% of the two-party vote share in Washington, while Trump will end up with 47.2%.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models often include substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 54.1% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Washington. This value is 1.3 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 2.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 55.1% in Washington. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 0.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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