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Jerome model in Virginia: Trump with clear lead

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The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model predicts that Clinton will achieve 44.3% of the two-party vote share in Virginia, whereas Trump will win 55.7%.

Historically, Virginia has been a purple state, in which neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. This is why forecasts here are of particular importance.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not be overly confident the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 49.8% of the two-party vote in Virginia, which is 5.9 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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