The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 44.3% for Clinton and 55.7% for Trump in Virginia.
Virginia is traditionally a battleground state, where the Democratic and Republican candidates have historically achieved similar levels of voter support. This is why the election outcome here is viewed as important in determining the overall result of the presidential election.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models should be interpreted with caution, because they can include large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, one should use combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Trump can currently count on 53.1% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Virginia. In comparison to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 2.6 percentage points lower.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 5.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 49.8% in Virginia. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 8.4 percentage points higher.