Jerome model in Texas: Trump is in the lead

The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 46.8% for Clinton and 53.2% for Trump in Texas.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they can incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Texas sees Trump at 57.0% of the two-party vote. This value is 3.8 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 55.5% of the two-party vote in Texas, which is 2.3 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 5.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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