Jerome model in South Dakota: Trump with clear lead

The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election result. The model's forecast is that Clinton will garner 43.0% of the two-party vote share in South Dakota, while Trump will end up with 57.0%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, one should not put too much trust in the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump currently achieves 59.6% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in South Dakota. This value is 2.6 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 2.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 59.3% in South Dakota. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 9.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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