Jerome model in Pennsylvania: Clinton with comfortable lead

The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 53.5% for Clinton and 46.5% for Trump in Pennsylvania.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be interpreted with caution, as they may incorporate substantial biases. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Pennsylvania econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 51.9%. This value is 1.6 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.4% in Pennsylvania. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 0.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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