Jerome model in Pennsylvania: Clinton with comfortable lead

The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model's forecast is that Clinton will obtain 53.5% of the two-party vote share in Pennsylvania, whereas Trump will end up with 46.5%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they often contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania, which is 0.1 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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