Jerome model in North Carolina: Trump with small lead

The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model forecasts that Clinton will receive 47.2% of the two-party vote share in North Carolina, whereas Trump will win 52.8%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in North Carolina sees Trump at 53.2% of the two-party vote. Compared to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 0.4 percentage points higher.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 1.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 51.2% in North Carolina. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 5.5 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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