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Jerome model in New Hampshire: Clinton with comfortable lead


The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to this model, Clinton will garner 54.1% of the two-party vote share in New Hampshire, whereas Trump will end up with 45.9%.

In New Hampshire, the election outcome is often decided by a narrow margin. This is the reason why the state is commonly referred to as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models often include substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

Clinton can currently count on 52.3% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in New Hampshire. Compared to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.8 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 1.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 52.2% in New Hampshire. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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