Jerome model in Minnesota: Clinton with clear lead

The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model predicts that Clinton will collect 58.5% of the two-party vote share in Minnesota, while Trump will win 41.5%.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be treated with caution, since they may incorporate substantial biases. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results vs. other econometric models

Clinton is currently at 55.1% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Minnesota. In comparison to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 3.5 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 4.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.8% in Minnesota. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 5.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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