The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model predicts that Clinton will collect 55.1% of the two-party vote share in Michigan, while Trump will end up with 44.9%.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models may include substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Michigan sees Clinton at 53.8% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.3 percentage points lower.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 1.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.8% in Michigan. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 2.4 percentage points higher.