Jerome model in Maryland: Clinton is in the lead

The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will receive 60.8% of the two-party vote share in Maryland, while Trump will end up with 39.2%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, one should not rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Maryland sees Clinton at 61.1% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.3 percentage points better.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 3.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 64.3% in Maryland. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 8.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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