Jerome model in Iowa: Clinton with comfortable lead

The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to this model, Clinton will garner 54.3% of the two-party vote share in Iowa, whereas Trump will end up with 45.7%.

Iowa is traditionally a swing state, where the two major political parties have historically achieved similar levels of support among voters. Therefore, the election outcome in that state is viewed as important in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they may incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 51.2% of the two-party vote in Iowa, which is 3.1 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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